[eDebate] In Defense of Topic Lists: ans White
Fri Jun 20 15:09:40 CDT 2003
De-cloaking again, briefly...
At 01:33 PM 6/20/2003 -0500, Cameron White wrote:
>Much of Ryan's analysis centered around whether a broad
>topic favored schools with more resources by allowing them
>to break NEW Aff. cases on out rounds.
I understood that point. All I'm saying is, Where is the bias? If
Negatives are winning their fair share of outrounds at the NDT, it seems
unlikely that there is some benefit to breaking new cases lurking in the
data. I haven't a clue as to how often teams are breaking new Affs in NDT
outrounds, but if they are doing it often it isn't skewing the outcomes in
their favor, and if they are doing it seldom I don't understand why anyone
>This may not be conclusive evidence, but it is
>something that people should be aware of when choosing a
>resolution to support.
If the point is that certain topics will make it easier to break a new case
*in the finals,* you might have an argument. If the argument is framed as
broad vs. narrow and breaking new in NDT outrounds generally, I think
Ryan's case falls apart (see above and below).
>Obviously, more research into side
>bias in elims at NDTs other than the last two are needed
>to get a clearer picture of the connection between side
>bias and broad vs. limited topic
Just doing a quick scan of the data from 1997-2001 (the only data to which
I have access), you have Aff winning about 57% of NDT outrounds (67 of 111
debates). Not exactly a scary percentage. By year: 1997 (17 of 24), 1998
(14 of 26), 1999 (13 of 28), 2000 (3 of 7, most of the pairings did not
indicate sides), 2001 (16 of 26). When you add in 2002-2003, you have Aff
winning 54% (90 of 167). That isn't enough of a skew to establish ANY kind
of Aff side bias, much less one based on the ability to break new cases in
I'll leave it to others to explore whether the years in which Aff dominated
outrounds ('97and, arguably, '01) employed broad or narrow topics...
Solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and...well, not so tall as I used to be,
Bishop LeBlond Memorial High School
St. Joseph, Missouri
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