[eDebate] In Defense of Topic Lists: ans White

[Terrance Shuman]

De-cloaking again, briefly...

At 01:33 PM 6/20/2003 -0500, Cameron White wrote:
>Much of Ryan's analysis centered around whether a broad
>topic favored schools with more resources by allowing them
>to break NEW Aff. cases on out rounds.

I understood that point.  All I'm saying is, Where is the bias?  If 
Negatives are winning their fair share of outrounds at the NDT, it seems 
unlikely that there is some benefit to breaking new cases lurking in the 
data.  I haven't a clue as to how often teams are breaking new Affs in NDT 
outrounds, but if they are doing it often it isn't skewing the outcomes in 
their favor, and if they are doing it seldom I don't understand why anyone 
cares...

>This may not be conclusive evidence, but it is
>something that people should be aware of when choosing a
>resolution to support.

If the point is that certain topics will make it easier to break a new case 
*in the finals,* you might have an argument.  If the argument is framed as 
broad vs. narrow and breaking new in NDT outrounds generally, I think 
Ryan's case falls apart (see above and below).

>Obviously, more research into side
>bias in elims at NDTs other than the last two are needed
>to get a clearer picture of the connection between side
>bias and broad vs. limited topic

Just doing a quick scan of the data from 1997-2001 (the only data to which 
I have access), you have Aff winning about 57% of NDT outrounds (67 of 111 
debates).  Not exactly a scary percentage.  By year:  1997 (17 of 24), 1998 
(14 of 26), 1999 (13 of 28), 2000 (3 of 7, most of the pairings did not 
indicate sides), 2001 (16 of 26).  When you add in 2002-2003, you have Aff 
winning 54% (90 of 167).  That isn't enough of a skew to establish ANY kind 
of Aff side bias, much less one based on the ability to break new cases in 
outrounds.

I'll leave it to others to explore whether the years in which Aff dominated 
outrounds ('97and, arguably, '01) employed broad or narrow topics...

Solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and...well, not so tall as I used to be,

Terrance Shuman
Bishop LeBlond Memorial High School
St. Joseph, Missouri