[eDebate] korcok: neocons ignored CIA analysis that overthrow = civil war, chaos

Jake Stromboli infracaninophile
Sun Jul 2 17:30:54 CDT 2006

either they ignored it or they deliberately created chaos and anti-american 
sentiment to feed al-qaeda recruiting and generate a new cold war to last 
for decades with massive DOD budgets ad infinitum.  remember dick cheney 
lied to the american people on national television on a sunday in the lead 
up to the war and said that the iraqis would welcome their liberators.   how 
come the chickenhawks are so incompetent all the time?


"Pillar describes for the first time that the intelligence community did 
assessments before the invasion that, he wrote, indicated a postwar Iraq 
"would not provide fertile ground for democracy" and would need "a Marshall 
Plan-type effort" to restore its economy despite its oil revenue. It also 
foresaw Sunnis and Shiites fighting for power.

Pillar wrote that the intelligence community "anticipated that a foreign 
occupying force would itself be the target of resentment and attacks -- 
including guerrilla warfare -- unless it established security and put Iraq 
on the road to prosperity in the first few weeks or months after the fall of 

In an interview, Pillar said the prewar assessments "were not 
crystal-balling, but in them we were laying out the challenges that would 
face us depending on decisions that were made."

Pillar wrote that the first request he received from a Bush policymaker for 
an assessment of post-invasion Iraq was "not until a year into the war."

That assessment, completed in August 2004, warned that the insurgency in 
Iraq could evolve into a guerrilla war or civil war. It was leaked to the 
media in September in the midst of the presidential campaign, and Bush, who 
had told voters that the mission in Iraq was going well, described the 
assessment to reporters as "just guessing."

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