[eDebate] The One Percent Doctrine

Ross K. Smith smithr
Sun Jul 2 23:05:28 CDT 2006


The post linked below is worth reading and thinking about for its 
application to the use of risk analysis in debate rounds:

While low probablity/high impact scenarios should not be ignored, 
prioritizing among them is necessary; and treating any one as if it were 
a certainty may misallocate resources necessary to solve others.

Suskind's book and other commentary on it may also yield more 
interesting food for debater and debate judge thought.

The link (a guest poster at NDT Quarterfinalist Glenn Greenwald's blog): 
http://glenngreenwald.blogspot.com/2006/06/applying-one-percent-doctrine-in.html

Another interesting take:

"Imagine what would happen in various everyday situations were the 
Cheney doctrine to be applied. A young man is in a bar and another man 
gives him a hard stare. If the young Cheneyite feels threatened and 
believes the probability to be at least 1 percent that the other man 
will shoot him, then he has a right to preemptively shoot him in 
'self-defense.'"

Cite for the above quote: 
http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/story?id=2120605&page=1





-- 
Ross K. Smith
Debate Coach
Wake Forest University

336-758-5268





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