[eDebate] CLEAN BREAK REPORT TEXT--essential reading for any foreign policy student
Fri Jul 14 21:56:13 CDT 2006
operation syria rollback in action --- the full text and not just this quote
that outlines the motivation of the "new" war is available @ this site.
don't be fooled --- this is not about 2 soldiers:
We must distinguish soberly and clearly friend from foe. We must make
sure that our friends across the Middle East never doubt the solidity or
value of our friendship.
Israel can shape its strategic environment, in cooperation with Turkey and
Jordan, by weakening, containing, and even rolling back Syria. This effort
can focus on removing Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq ? an important
Israeli strategic objective in its own right ? as a means of foiling Syria?s
regional ambitions. Jordan has challenged Syria's regional ambitions
recently by suggesting the restoration of the Hashemites in Iraq. This has
triggered a Jordanian-Syrian rivalry to which Asad has responded by stepping
up efforts to destabilize the Hashemite Kingdom, including using
infiltrations. Syria recently signaled that it and Iran might prefer a weak,
but barely surviving Saddam, if only to undermine and humiliate Jordan in
its efforts to remove Saddam.
But Syria enters this conflict with potential weaknesses: Damascus is too
preoccupied with dealing with the threatened new regional equation to permit
distractions of the Lebanese flank. And Damascus fears that the 'natural
axis' with Israel on one side, central Iraq and Turkey on the other, and
Jordan, in the center would squeeze and detach Syria from the Saudi
Peninsula. For Syria, this could be the prelude to a redrawing of the map of
the Middle East which would threaten Syria's territorial integrity.
Since Iraq's future could affect the strategic balance in the Middle East
profoundly, it would be understandable that Israel has an interest in
supporting the Hashemites in their efforts to redefine Iraq, including such
measures as: visiting Jordan as the first official state visit, even before
a visit to the United States, of the new Netanyahu government; supporting
King Hussein by providing him with some tangible security measures to
protect his regime against Syrian subversion; encouraging ? through
influence in the U.S. business community ? investment in Jordan to
structurally shift Jordan?s economy away from dependence on Iraq; and
diverting Syria?s attention by using Lebanese opposition elements to
destabilize Syrian control of Lebanon.
Most important, it is understandable that Israel has an interest supporting
diplomatically, militarily and operationally Turkey?s and Jordan?s actions
against Syria, such as securing tribal alliances with Arab tribes that cross
into Syrian territory and are hostile to the Syrian ruling elite.
King Hussein may have ideas for Israel in bringing its Lebanon problem under
control. The predominantly Shia population of southern Lebanon has been tied
for centuries to the Shia leadership in Najf, Iraq rather than Iran. Were
the Hashemites to control Iraq, they could use their influence over Najf to
help Israel wean the south Lebanese Shia away from Hizballah, Iran, and
Syria. Shia retain strong ties to the Hashemites: the Shia venerate foremost
the Prophet?s family, the direct descendants of which ? and in whose veins
the blood of the Prophet flows ? is King Hussein.
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