[eDebate] Fwd: Re: Response to Kloster

NEIL BERCH berchnorto
Thu Nov 23 07:55:35 CST 2006


One data point (and Gary obviously has many more to use):  at our JV/Novice Nationals last year, we used a 9 category preference system.  There were 167 debates (about 40% of all prelims) where one team 
preferred a judge more than the other team did. The team that preferred the 
judge more won just 83 of those debates (49.7%). If we exclude the 14 
debates where there was a difference of more than one category (8 of which 
were won by the team that preferred the judge more), then the team that 
preferred the judge slightly more won 75 out of 153 debates (49.0%). 
--Neil Berch
West Virginia University
  ----- Original Message ----- 
  From: Jean-Paul Lacy<mailto:lacyjp at wfu.edu> 
  To: Gary Larson<mailto:Gary.N.Larson at wheaton.edu> ; Edebate<mailto:edebate at ndtceda.com> 
  Sent: Thursday, November 23, 2006 3:12 AM
  Subject: Re: [eDebate] Fwd: Re: Response to Kloster



  >As a final caveat, none of us are as smart as we think we are in our
  >rankings.  It is still the case that judge rankings are a very poor
  >predictor of who wins a debate, being slightly worse than chance.
  >
  >GARY


  If rankings are slightly worse than chance:

  Are we collectively bad at picking judges? Or, is does this statistic prove 
  that we can collectively pick good judges?

  If we're only slightly off pure chance, maybe mutual preference is becoming 
  strong enough that we can pick fair judges.

  Maybe debaters and coaches are getting smart enough to pick the judges who 
  will do their best to determine the fair winner. A mutual 100 judge can 
  only pick one winner.

  The bottom line is the holy grail--every team in the tournament gets the 
  judge who they think can fairly judge their debate.

  The real question is: How much lack of mutuality is a predictor of who 
  wins? Or, when does the difference predict an outcome?

  The point where it becomes a significant difference should be the cut-off 
  for mutuality in the whole preference vs mutuality mess.

  --JP "still learning statistics" Lacy

  ps--While I agree in principle with having a "bright line" or "cap" for 
  strikes, shouldn't people be able to figure this out for themselves if they 
  filled out a sheet that made their Z-score of a 0 LESS than -1? The numbers 
  are on the sheet as you submit them.

  pps--Given an unfettered 0-100 system, I disagree with translating things 
  into ordinals for an additional comparison point for the tab room. Ordinals 
  are useful, but they don't reflect how teams fill out a sheet in an 
  unfettered 0-100 system. People are counting on the Z score to reflect 
  differences between clusters when they fill out an unfettered 0-100 sheet. 
  Ordinals can't reflect that.

  ppps--The 9-0 system isn't good enough. Has any system beat ordinals in 
  terms of overall preference? Despite whines to the contrary,ordinal ranking 
  is the easiest way to fill out a preference sheet. Get a stack of 4x6 cards 
  and put them in order if you can't figure out how to do it on a computer. 
  Honestly, it is much easier to figure out if X judge is better than Y than 
  if X judge should be deemed equal to your A+ judges. If sheet gaming, (as 
  reflected in categorical 9-0 prefs,) is valued by the community, it is 
  still preserved in an ordinal system. Add a guaranteed strike cap or 
  "cut-off" to that system and you have the best we can do for the time being.










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