[eDebate] Disclaimer

NEIL BERCH berchnorto
Thu Jul 19 15:01:23 CDT 2007

My stats below are fine, but after a backchannel discussion with a coach of one of the schools below, I reevaluated my logic.  I completely repudiate the evaluative statement I made below.  If a school had 6 first round bids (leaving aside 3rd teams in 2nd round bids), you would expect them to have maybe 4 or 5 teams in octas during that time, not 6.  I was assuming a probability of 1 when a more reasonable assumption is probably about 0.8.

The numbers are good; my analysis sucks.
--Neil Berch
West Virginia University
  ----- Original Message ----- 
  From: NEIL BERCH<mailto:berchnorto at msn.com> 
  To: edebate<mailto:edebate at ndtceda.com> 
  Sent: Thursday, July 19, 2007 2:25 PM
  Subject: [eDebate] last set of stats

  Number of teams debating in octas at the NDT the past 4 years:
  5--UC-Berkeley, Dartmouth, Emory, Harvard, Northwestern
  4--Kansas, Michigan State, Wake, Whitman
  2--Fullerton, George Washington, Georgia, Oklahoma, Redlands, Texas, UMKC, Wayne State
  1--CSU-Long Beach, Fort Hays, Kentucky, Louisville, North Texas, USC, West Georgia

  Comparing with First Round Bids:
  Top 6 schools accounted for 37 first rounds (58%) but only 29 octafinalists (45%).
  Top 10 schools accounted for 49 first rounds (77%) but only 43 octafinalists (67%).

  This provides mild evidence to support the notion that rep counts for more in the bid process than it does in a round.  You might actually expect the top schools to perform better in the tournament, as they could very well have some really good 3rd teams that were shut out of first rounds.

  --Neil Berch
  West Virginia University

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