[eDebate] Interesting article from one of the best political writers in Florida

FijiPapabear at aol.com FijiPapabear
Thu Oct 23 08:31:11 CDT 2008


Thought this article would be interesting fodder with all the adhom  election 
bashing.  
(_http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/national/article867006.ece_ 
(http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/national/article867006.ece) )
 
 
Five reasons not to write off John McCain's candidacy 



By _Adam C.  Smith_ (http://www.tampabay.com/writers/article380298.ece) , 
Times Political Editor 
In print: Thursday, October 23, 2008   
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Campaign 2008 
 


Look at the electoral map with less than two weeks to go, and the picture  
could hardly look more grim for Sen. John McCain. He's playing defense in a host 
 of states he can't afford to lose ? from Florida to Virginia to Indiana ? 
and  polls show his options dwindling fast for capturing enough states to reach 
the  necessary 270 electoral votes. But 12 days is still a lot of time, and 
so far  almost nothing about this election has been predictable.  
1. The primaries told us something. If there's one thing we learned  from 
those hard-fought party battles, it's that McCain closes strong and Obama  
doesn't. McCain capitalized on momentum from some early wins to take control of  the 
race by mid February, but Obama followed primary wins with losses and didn't  
claim the nomination until June. Now, a number of state and national polls 
show  a tightening race. 
2. Polls aren't gospel. Question marks on polling this year: hidden  racism; 
the increasing number of Americans refusing to talk to pollsters; the  growing 
number of voters not getting polled because they use only cell phones;  how 
polling models factor in infrequent voters who may not show up on Election  
Day. On Wednesday, a national Associated Press poll had Obama up by one point,  
while a Fox News poll had him up nine. 
3. Complacency. Obama is relying heavily on big turnout by young  voters and 
other groups who typically don't vote in large numbers. The more that  
conventional wisdom coalesces around the idea that Obama will win, the less  
motivated many Obama voters will be to turn out. Hence Obama's mantra lately is  to 
remind supporters about Hillary Rodham Clinton's big upset: "Remember New  
Hampshire." 
4. Pennsylvania. Polls show Obama with a double digit lead in the  Keystone 
State, but the McCain campaign insists Obama is underperforming in key  
Democratic parts of Pennsylvania and they could eke out a victory. If McCain  wins 
those 21 electoral votes, that could put him in the White House. 
5. Obama hasn't closed the sale. Despite his vast advantages in TV and  
organizational spending in battleground states, many polls show he has not  crossed 
the threshold of 50 percent support. There's every reason to think  
last-minute deciders could break McCain's way.
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