[eDebate] # of wars

Clay Webb webb767
Sun Apr 12 17:05:55 CDT 2009


To be sure?almost all of it was a joke. I have a lot of respect for the OU
debate team, and I am very happy for Nick and RJ. I wasn?t seriously trying
to offend anyone. I just saw the opportunity to go on a crazy conservative
rant and went for it. I don?t actually think of myself as a neocon and I
don?t really want a nuclear war to happen. If I caused you offense, I
apologize.

All that being said?.number of conflicts down.

Even if you don?t like strategy page, world watch concedes the number of
violent conflicts has declined. Fourth paragraph:

?The Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research (HIIK) in
Germany finds that while the number of ?high intensity? conflicts has indeed
declined in recent years, ?medium intensity? conflicts (characterized by
sporadic rather than continuous violence) have risen steeply, as have ?low
intensity? (nonviolent) con- flicts.8 (See Figure 3.) Some 58 percent of all
conflicts in 2006 involved nonviolence.9?

The number 42, according to worldwatch, also assumes drop. The AKUF Working
group on War Causes that your article quotes at the beginning also makes
this argument:

?The German Arbeitsgemiehschaft Keriegsursachenforschung (AKUF Working Group
on War Causes), a conflict research group at the University of Hamburg,
annually updates statistics of wars and armed conflicts. Both wars and
violent conflicts peaked in the early 1990s. By the criteria this group
uses, armed conflicts declined from a high of 55 in 1992 to 27 to 28 since
2003, a drop of around 50%. The number of wars dropped 31% from 62 in 1993
to 42 or 43 since 2003 (Worldwatch Institute, 2007).? ? To be honest this is
from some random web page for ?great shifters??I have no idea?.prob not
qualified?but does use the data from the AKUF and World Watch.

The ?Strategy Bros? as Louie called them didn?t account for all of the
sporadic violence?and?non-violent conflicts. BTW the managing editor of
strategy page is Jim Dunnigan who graduated from Columbia in 1970 and has
been designing Wargames since 1966.

A comprehensive study conducted by the Human Security Centre in 2005
concludes that there are fewer wars and those wars are less violent:

http://www.humansecurityreport.info/press/Press_Release.pdf

Project Ploughshares has been collecting data since 1987. There has been a
significant drop since the mid 90s.
http://www.ploughshares.ca/libraries/ACRText/ReducedConflictsGraph.pdf

None of this addresses the more relevant point. Nuclear deterrence solves
great power powers. Realism isn?t irrelevant. The ?entire argument? if one
could distill one from my insane diatribe would just be that we don?t need
to radically re-think the way we debate because conversations about nuclear
war and grand strategy continue to be relevant.

As for the lollable Nietzsche business. Yes, you have read more about that
than I have, and I have never read Mein Kampf. But, Hitler knew enough of
Nietzsche's work to give a copy of the collected works of Frederick
Nietzsche to Mussolini as sixtieth birthday gift. - Ian Kershaw. Hitler
1936-45: Nemesis, Allen Lane, London. 2000. P.597.

I don?t think Ontology = feelings. Just that if someone was asked about the
desirability of some policy?say?biofuel subsides?and someone retorts with an
argument about either that they are equally irrelevant. Team one: biofuel
subsidies affect food prices. Team two: we need to rethink our relationship
to violence?.what? I checked out the dictionary, and found this:

Non Sequitur - is latin for "it does not follow". It so most often used to
indicate something which does not follow logically, such as a stated
conclusion that is not supported by the facts. Non sequitur may refer to: a
logical fallacy, a comment that has no relation to the preceding comment or
to an ongoing discussion or topic.

Obviously most people don?t agree with me?and that is also the world that we
live in?and that is also probably not changing.

Again, I was not trying to talk to Jackie ?like a child?. Jackie has always
been nice to us, and I def don?t want any of you to think that I don?t
respect him.  Anyone who has been around for one of these rants knows that I
don?t mean any harm.

Clay
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