[eDebate] Does anyone realize....
edebate at omriceren.com
Mon Jul 6 22:39:23 CDT 2009
On 7/5/2009 8:26 PM, Malcolm Gordon wrote:
> We do, however, know that even the most powerful economic shock recorded
> since WW2 (and arguably EVER) has not directly contributed to
> international tension, much less nuclear exchange.
I'm not sure that's a particularly tenable claim.
The decline of the US's relative economic position has caused China to
diversify their dollar holdings, potentially undermining the American
financial system. The situation has been described by STRATFOR as "just
one of many U.S.-Chinese tensions likely to arise amid the global
Economic contractions in Central America, coupled with swine flu, have
left the drug trade as quite literally the only growth industry in
Mexico. Even assuming that Mexico won't become a failed state - a less
than sound assumption - the situation has brought intense domestic
populist pressures to bear on American politicians. DPA describes the
crisis one of "rising tension between Mexico and the US."
Economic motivations are forcing Russia to more aggressively market its
anti-aircraft missiles, including the advanced S-300 system that they've
been under intense pressure not to sell to Iran. The situation has now
reached the point where Russia is demanding that Israel purchase the
missiles to keep them out of Iran's hands. If the missiles are to be
installed in Iran, Israel might forgo the 2010 deadline that Netanyahu
gave Obama and move immediately. An Israel do-or-die attack on Iran
would certainly rise to the level of "tension."
And of course, the decline in oil prices has destabilized the Iranian
regime and undermined the populist base that kept hardliners in power.
The resulting overreaction by the regime has triggered one of Central
Asia's worst geopolitical crises since the Carter administration.
And yet I still find myself thinking that the least defensible part of
this email is the "and arguably EVER" part that, in contrast to the
muddleheadedness displayed elsewhere, is simply, straightforwardly, and
Four Lads Who Shook The World
--- Inscription on the Dooley Statue in Liverpool
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