[eDebate] Does anyone realize....

edebate at omriceren.com edebate
Mon Jul 6 22:39:23 CDT 2009


On 7/5/2009 8:26 PM, Malcolm Gordon wrote:

> We do, however, know that even the most powerful economic shock recorded 
> since WW2 (and arguably EVER) has not directly contributed to 
> international tension, much less nuclear exchange.

I'm not sure that's a particularly tenable claim.

The decline of the US's relative economic position has caused China to 
diversify their dollar holdings, potentially undermining the American 
financial system. The situation has been described by STRATFOR as "just 
one of many U.S.-Chinese tensions likely to arise amid the global 
recession."

Economic contractions in Central America, coupled with swine flu, have 
left the drug trade as quite literally the only growth industry in 
Mexico. Even assuming that Mexico won't become a failed state - a less 
than sound assumption - the situation has brought intense domestic 
populist pressures to bear on American politicians. DPA describes the 
crisis one of "rising tension between Mexico and the US."

Economic motivations are forcing Russia to more aggressively market its 
anti-aircraft missiles, including the advanced S-300 system that they've 
been under intense pressure not to sell to Iran. The situation has now 
reached the point where Russia is demanding that Israel purchase the 
missiles to keep them out of Iran's hands. If the missiles are to be 
installed in Iran, Israel might forgo the 2010 deadline that Netanyahu 
gave Obama and move immediately. An Israel do-or-die attack on Iran 
would certainly rise to the level of "tension."

And of course, the decline in oil prices has destabilized the Iranian 
regime and undermined the populist base that kept hardliners in power. 
The resulting overreaction by the regime has triggered one of Central 
Asia's worst geopolitical crises since the Carter administration.

And yet I still find myself thinking that the least defensible part of 
this email is the "and arguably EVER" part that, in contrast to the 
muddleheadedness displayed elsewhere, is simply, straightforwardly, and 
demonstrably wrong.

Regads,
Omri.

-- 

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Four Lads Who Shook The World
          --- Inscription on the Dooley Statue in Liverpool
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